Apple's Q3 2009: Analyzing the analysts

[Originally posted July 22, 2009 on Fortune.com]

Tuesday was not a good day for professional analysts as a class -- and Merrill Lynch's in particular.

Not only were most caught off guard by the strength of Apple's (AAPL) record third-quarter results -- see here -- but the men and women who track the company for banks and brokerage houses were bested once again by a bunch of bloggers, day traders and amateurs analysts.

In the color-coded chart excerpted above -- and pasted in full below the fold -- the estimates that were closest to the mark are highlighted in green and the worst highlighted in red.

Apple's Q2: Analyzing the Analysts

[Originally posted April 23, 2009 on Fortune.com]

No analyst we know of correctly predicted Apple's (AAPL) second fiscal quarter results for 2009, in which the company proved that computer makers don't have to slash prices or build "junky" $400 netbooks to weather an economic storm. But some analysts did better than others.

Who did best?

Let's look at the numbers. The table below represents the estimates of all the Wall Street analysts whose numbers we could get our hands on, as well as those of three of the most prominent blogger analysts. (We could have included lots more bloggers; everybody these days seems to have an Apple earnings spreadsheet in their hard drive.)

In our chart, the actual results and the most accurate estimates are highlighted in green. The worst estimates are highlighted in red. There were several ties.